Risky stuff

Risk: the effect of uncertainty on objectives (whether positive or negative). Risk management: the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimise, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximise the realisation of opportunities.

And we wonder why people hate the phrases 'risk management', or 'risk assessment' and 'health and safety'.

And yet, the actual mechanics of risk assessment are known to every half-decent parent who ever takes their kids on a day out, or holiday, or watches them playing. What causes all the resentment is the way in which the small-minded implement legislation, and the sheer ignorance, both of what comprises 'risk' and of the legislation.

It's the 'risk' issue that the DFM loves to play with, of course, in their frequent articles about what can kill you, when they write in their singularly disingenuous way that eating carrots can double your chances of contracting toe cancer.  Which, if the original risk was 0.0001% means that the risk is now 0.0002% - or, in other words, indistinguishable from sheer chance.

Of course, many fear dying in a 'plane crash, although the odds of that having are so massive you'd have to fly in a 'plane every single day for 19000 years. But at least you'd get some frequent flyer miles.

The WHO collates risk stats, but it's a big job, and the last year for which we have complete figures is 2000.  Nevertheless, they make interesting reading. 

In that year the major causes of death in order were

      Tobacco (18.1 percent of total deaths)
   
      Poor diet and physical inactivity (16.6 percent)
   
      Alcohol consumption (3.5 percent)
   
      Microbial agents  (germs 'n stuff)
  
      Toxic agents (people drinking bleach and drain cleaner)

      Motor vehicle crashes
  
      Incidents involving firearms

      Sexual behaviours

     Illicit use of drugs

The interesting thing about all those factors is that they're a product of human activity. And it's important to remember that when we talk about climate change and its causes, we're talking about risk, and it's the risk that human activity may be causing it that worries the better scientists.